Who will be relegated? Predicting the relegation run-in after Everton points deduction

Plus, vote on which club will beat the drop, and who will drop into the Championship

Everton’s second points deduction of the season has dragged the club ever closer to the Premier League relegation zone after a two-point sanction was added to the six they lost earlier this season for profit and sustainability breaches.
With Nottingham Forest also deducted four points for similar offences last month, the bottom of the table has been shaken up to leave a seven-team survival shoot-out with just a handful of games remaining.
Forest and Everton have both appealed their punishments, with the latter also having a potential third penalty applied with the Premier League disputing the level of overspend admitted by the Merseyside club. But based on the new table after Everton’s two-point penalty, Telegraph Sport predicts how the relegation dogfight will play out.
Liverpool 3 Crystal Palace 0Crystal Palace 1 West Ham United 2Crystal Palace 1 Newcastle United 1Fulham 1 Crystal Palace 1Crystal Palace 1 Manchester United 2Wolverhampton Wanderers 1 Crystal Palace 1Crystal Palace 0 Aston Villa 1
Final predicted points total: 33
The run of three games against West Ham United and Newcastle United at home, followed by the trip to Fulham look pivotal. I have not predicted a win in any of these but if they can take three points from one of them, that will take the pressure off in the last three games which look extremely tough on paper.
Chelsea 2 Everton 1Everton 1 Nottingham Forest 0Everton 0 Liverpool 2Everton 1 Brentford 0Luton Town 2 Everton 2Everton 1 Sheffield United 0Arsenal 4 Everton 0‌
Final predicted points total (after points deduction): 37
‌Everton’s remaining fixtures are kind, especially given the fact they play four teams in the bottom six before the end of the season. Sean Dyche’s side have also been here before and are capable of grinding out results when they need them. Goodison Park will be at its partisan best too. They should have enough to beat the drop yet again.
Brentford 2 Sheffield United 1Luton Town 2 Brentford 2Everton 1 Brentford 0Brentford 2 Fulham 1Bournemouth 1 Brentford 1Newcastle United 2 Brentford 0
Final predicted points total: 37 points
If they can build on recent solid form and win the two games against Sheffield United and Luton Town, they should be fine but the trip to Goodison Park also looks like a make or break game for Thomas Frank’s side. Cannot keep relying on draws. They need wins or they will be sucked into danger.
Nottingham Forest 1 Wolves 1Everton 1 Nottingham Forest 0Nottingham Forest 1 Manchester City 4Sheffield United 1 Nottingham Forest 2Nottingham Forest 1 Chelsea 2Burnley 1 Nottingham Forest 1‌
Final predicted points total: 32
Perhaps the most difficult side to predict in the run-in as they have been playing well, especially at home. The bottom line is they will deserve to go down if they cannot beat two of the teams directly below them in the Premier League. The last-day trip to Burnley could make or break their survival bid.
Manchester City 4 Luton Town 0Luton Town 2 Brentford 2Wolves 1 Luton Town 0Luton Town 2 Everton 2West Ham 1 Luton Town 0Luton Town 1 Fulham‌ 0
Final predicted points total: 30
They have given themselves a chance, which most people would not have predicted back in August and they have some winnable games too against Brentford, Everton and Fulham at home. I have predicted draws in all three but they have surprised people all season and can do it again. If they can pick up another win from somewhere they could just pull off a remarkable escape.
Burnley 0 Brighton & Hove Albion 2Sheffield United 0 Burnley 1Manchester United 3 Burnley 1Burnley 0 Newcastle United 2Tottenham Hotspur 0 Burnley 3Burnley 1 Nottingham Forest 2‌
Final predicted points total: 22‌
The damage has already been done and there are simply too many games against strong opponents for them to close the gap to fourth from bottom. By the time Nottingham Forest arrive on the final day, Vincent Kompany’s side will already be doomed.
Brentford 2 Sheffield United 1Sheffield United 0 Burnley 1Manchester United 3 Sheffield United 0Newcastle United 4 Sheffield United 0Sheffield United 1 Nottingham Forest 2Everton 2 Sheffield United 1Sheffield United 3 Tottenham Hotspur 1‌
Final predicted points total: 16‌
The home draw with Chelsea will have at least given them some hope that a miracle can happen but concede far too many goals and have only won three games all season. Chris Wilder will already have half an eye on making sure they are competitive in the Championship promotion hunt next season.